Scenario Planning for the Resilience of U.S. Supply Chains: Modeling the Impacts of Geopolitical Disruptions and Freight Cost Volatility
Scenario Planning for the Resilience of U.S. Supply Chains: Modeling the Impacts of Geopolitical Disruptions and Freight Cost Volatility
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51473/rcmos.v1i1.2025.1420Keywords:
scenario planning; resilience; freight costs; geopolitics; TTS/TTR; United States.Abstract
This article examines the use of scenario planning as a decision-making tool to strengthen the resilience of U.S. supply chains in the face of geopolitical disruptions such as sanctions, conflicts, embargoes, and regulatory shocks, as well as the volatility of freight costs across ocean, rail, road, and air transport. The research integrates the operations and risk literature with strategic intelligence practices, proposing a method that connects plausible narratives to quantitative models—discrete event simulation, system dynamics, and Monte Carlo—generating metrics for TTS/TTR, OTIF, Operational VaR, and avoided loss under different trajectories. It argues that the usefulness of scenarios is enhanced when linked to signposts and decision triggers, which activate contractual optionalities, structural buffers, and multi-gateway rerouting. Evidence from sector reports and public policies, such as the National Freight Strategic Plan (USDOT), indicates that the combination of modular architecture, inter-organizational data, and contracts with options contributes to reducing the area of the “resilience triangle” and protecting margins in shock contexts (SHEFFI, 2015; CHOPRA; MEINDL, 2016; USDOT, 2020; UNCTAD, 2020; SEA-INTELLIGENCE, 2021).
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