The influence of face-to-face teaching and distance education on academic dropout in Brazil: a statistical analysis of time series from 2015 to 2025

Abstract

This paper examines how face-to-face and distance learning (EaD) forms affect academic dropout rates in public higher education institutions in Brazil, from 2015 to 2025. The educational scenario in Brazil has undergone a significant expansion of distance learning, driven by initiatives that seek to expand access to education, while the maintenance of students still presents challenges. The main objective of the investigation is to carry out a comparative analysis of the evolution of dropout rates in both modalities, based on official data obtained from the National Institute of Educational Studies and Research Anísio Teixeira (INEP). The methodological approach chosen is quantitative, using time series analysis to investigate secondary data on dropout rates over eleven years. The results indicate that, while the dropout rate in face-to-face education remained relatively stable, ranging from 17% to 19% most of the time, dropout in distance education (EaD) showed an increase, reaching peaks of more than 45% during the pandemic years (2020–2021). Regional variations and variations between areas of knowledge were also detected, with higher rates noted in the Northeast and in exact sciences courses. It can be concluded that, although distance education is widely accessible, there are structural barriers that negatively affect student retention. The research offers important results on the dynamics of dropout in higher education in Brazil and highlights the relevance of the use of statistical data in the elaboration of institutional policies aimed at retention and academic success.